Deep Uncertainties in Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge Projections: Implications for Coastal Flood Risk Management

Sea levels are rising in many areas around the world, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructures. Strategies for managing these flood risks present decision challenges that require a combination of geophysical, economic, and infrastructure models. Previous studies have broken important new ground on the considerable tensions between the costs of upgrading infrastructure and the damages that could result from extreme flood events. However, many risk-based adaptation strategies remain silent on certain potentially important uncertainties, as well as the tradeoffs between competing objectives. Here, we implement and improve on a classic decision-analytical model (Van Dantzig 1956) to: (i) capture tradeoffs across conflicting stakeholder objectives, (ii) demonstrate the consequences of structural uncertainties in the sea-level rise and storm surge models, and (iii) identify the parametric uncertainties that most strongly influence each objective using global sensitivity analysis. We find that the flood adaptation model produces potentially myopic solutions when formulated using traditional mean-centric decision theory. Moving from a single-objective problem formulation to one with multiobjective tradeoffs dramatically expands the decision space, and highlights the need for compromise solutions to address stakeholder preferences. We find deep structural uncertainties that have large effects on the model outcome, with the storm surge parameters accounting for the greatest impacts. Global sensitivity analysis effectively identifies important parameter interactions that local methods overlook, and that could have critical implications for flood adaptation strategies.     

Open Dialogue: Frequently Asked Questions

Open Dialogue is an approach to working with people and their families experiencing psychosocial distress. Interest in Open Dialogue in Australia has been growing recently, raising questions about its adaption and implementation to local contexts. This article is an attempt to answer some of the frequently asked questions we have encountered in training and discussions about Open Dialogue. We attempt to provide responses to questions of how Open Dialogue is different to what is done already, how it fits with current approaches, how you know if you are doing it, whether it is passive or just about doing reflections, issues about including the social network, and concerns about the evidence base. This article aims to present a variety of viewpoints in relation to these questions and to hopefully further discussions on how Open Dialogue can be implemented and adapted to Australian health care and social care contexts.     

工程师职业视角下的工程技术人才培养改革探索——以重庆文理学院为例

工科院校是工程师的摇篮,高等工程教育重在为社会培养优秀工程技术人才。通过分析当前我国高等工程教育改革的背景、存在的主要问题与不足、国际高等工程教育的发展历程与经验等,探索基于工程师职业视角的以工程能力和工程师职业素养为导向的工程技术人才培养模式与路径,从而培养学生具备基础扎实、思想朴实、为人诚实、工作踏实等品行,培养学生具备面向未来的思考能力、面向需求的学习能力、面向实际的动手能力、面向问题的分析能力、面向工程的设计能力、面向工作的交流能力、面向社会的适应能力等工程素质。     

Hawkes过程分支比估计——一种简单的非参数方法

Hawkes自激发过程是近年来被广泛用于金融建模的一个良好模型。本文提出了一种Hawkes自激发过程的分支比的简单估计方法,该方法是对Hardiman和Bouchaud提出的均值-方差估计量的改进。在继承均值-方差估计量形式简便的优点的同时,克服其参数难以选择的缺陷,减小了估计的系统性偏差。模拟结果验证了改进的效果,同时我们将该估计方法用于我国股市内生性水平的分析之中。     

文化的多元性与少数民族双语教学

现代化是每个民族繁荣昌盛的必由之路,丧失现代化意味着民族的贫困;每个民族又应保在自己的优秀文化传统,丧失文化传统意味着民族的消亡。民族教育中正确处理好现代化与传统文化的关系,就要做到民族教育的现代化和现代教育的现代化。文章结合两个藏汉双语教学的典型实践,从文化的多元性角度,引发了对民族教育中双语教学问题的思考。     

法学方法新论

法学方法除了已有的价值评判、实证分析和社会实践以及法律解释、法律推理和逻辑分析等方法之外,还有其他法学方法,如从"事"(事物、事情)到"理"(道理),再从"理"到"法"(法律、法学),最后又从"法"到"事"。较之已有的法学方法,这些方法不仅是创新和发展,而且更为基础和根本。     

张君劢“修正的民主政治”

作为现代新儒家代表人物之一的张君劢,最具特色的思想成果是他所谓的"修正的民主政治"。张氏这一思想成果在当时的历史背景下,虽然具有即时性的历史合理性,但在学理上却存在诸多缺失。尤其在自由与权力、政治与经济和政治与文化之关系问题上,由于其文化保守主义倾向,许多提法和致思的理路都有问题。     

Nonprofit organizations in between the nonprofit and market spheres: Shifting goals,governance and management?

In spite of the belief instilled by the New Public Management reforms that nonprofit organizations (NPOs) can benefit from more management, more measurement and more market practices, systematic knowledge on the organizational effects of NPOs incorporating business practices in their day‐to‐day functioning remains absent to date. This research note addresses this limitation by reviewing 49 research articles. The focus lies on the redefinition of nonprofits' mission and income streams, changing governance arrangements and shifting management practices. We find that, despite numerous detrimental effects cited in the literature, (a) generating commercial income can contribute to the financial stability of NPOs, and (b) hybridization towards the market domain can strengthen the organizational legitimacy of NPOs, suggesting that imitating for‐profit enterprises might contribute to nonprofit functioning in perception, rather than in practice.